Assessing the short, intermediate and long-term health effects of COVID-19 on the survivors in Zambia: a prospective quantitative study protocol

Introduction: Little is known about the clinical course of COVID-19 following mild symptoms, and how the disease affects the survivors over time. Moreover, information on the severity of the long-term health effects as well as the associated risk factors is scant. This study aims to determine the short, intermediate and long-term health effects of COVID-19 on the survivors and the associated risk factors.

Methods and analysis: We propose conducting a 24-month prospective quantitative study in 10 health facilities (2 specialist, 3 regional, 2 mission and 3 subdistrict hospitals) from Lusaka and Southern Province of Zambia. Health facilities will be those which served as COVID-19 treatment centres during the third wave (June-August 2021). Study participants will comprise a randomly selected cohort of 450 COVID-19 survivors who had mild or no symptoms (80%) and severe cases (20%). Using a questionnaire, respondent demographic, clinical and laboratory data will be collected at baseline and at a 3-month interval for 18 months using a questionnaire. Respondents' medical records will be reviewed and data collected using a checklist. Descriptive statistics will be computed to summarise respondents' characteristics and clinical outcomes. Bivariate analysis (Χ² and t-test) will be conducted to test the association between respondent characteristics and clinical outcomes. Multivariate logistic regression analysis will be run to determine the risk factors for short, intermediate and long-term health effects; adjusted ORs will be computed to test the strength of the association (p<0.05).

Ethics and dissemination: Ethical approval was obtained from the University of Zambia Biomedical Research and the National Health Research Authority. Results will be disseminated to key stakeholders in Zambia, international open-access peer-reviewed journals, websites and international conferences, and likely lead to design of evidence-informed strategies to mitigate health effects of COVID-19 on survivors.